Brexit: and a shrinking population in Devon

Devon has always been a place for 'migration':
Futures Forum: Migration, Sidmouth and East Devon

Many of the incomers are retirees and the elderly - who need looking after:
Futures Forum: Population and migration: care for the elderly

Which creates its problems for housing and services - and community life:
Futures Forum: East Devon's demographic time bomb >>> "the District Council has a duty to create balanced communities"

The Brexit vote has put all of this into sharp focus:
Futures Forum: Brexit: and migrating to Devon
Futures Forum: Brexit: and migrant workers in Devon

Especially in the field of caring from the elderly:
Futures Forum: Brexit: and cheap labour for the hospitality and care industries

Here's a very provocative piece from the Plymouth Herald - and a fair amount of comment to follow:

Devon would disappear without immigrants

By NeilShaw | Posted: October 22, 2016 By Rob Grant

Comments (25)

Devon's population would shrink by 17,000 people by 2025 if you stopped migration to the county.

In 2015 there were 7,095 babies born to mums in Devon while 8,838 people died in the county. This means that there were 1,743 more deaths than births.

If migration to Devon were halted completely - both to Devon from elsewhere in Britain and from abroad - then the population would begin to shrink because the death toll would outweigh the birth rate.

At the 2015 rate, that would mean Devon's population would be smaller by 17,430 people by 2025.

This would be roughly equivalent to a town the size of Brixham disappearing off the map.

Devon had one of the widest gaps between births and deaths in the country. Only Dorset had more deaths than births in 2015.

Generally an area needs a fertility rate of 2.1 babies born per young woman to maintain the population without relying on migration. Like much of the country though, Devon is below this replacement figure, running at 1.76 babies per woman.

The demographics in Plymouth were much more sustainable. Some 721 more babies were born than deaths in 2015, which would work out at an extra 7,210 people in the city by 2025.

DATA:

Local Authority // Estimated population in 2025 compared to 2015

Devon // -17,430

Cornwall and Isles of Scilly // -7,980

Torbay // -4,280

Plymouth // 7,210



Devon would disappear without immigrants | Plymouth Herald
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