Saturday, 30 April 2016

Housing numbers projected for East Devon >>> >>> >>> "The total number of homes built during the 18 year Local Plan period could be as high as 23,000" - rather than the "17,000 minimum figure of housing need outlined by the new Local Plan."

It's difficult to know exactly what the projected numbers of houses are for East Devon:
Futures Forum: Housing numbers in East Devon ...... and the Local Plan
Futures Forum: Housing numbers in East Devon ... "The region, which is earmarked for 11,000 new homes..."
Futures Forum: Housing in East Devon: "I don’t see it as the floodgates opening, but I do see a stampede coming.”

The EDW blog has noticed a report from the District Council - and a pertinent comment follows:


29 APR 2016

As we expected, too many unaffordable, greenfield properties being built.

“83% of completions [in East Devon] on Greenfield sites (including fields and undeveloped greenspaces, barn conversions and garden sites)” …

… “A grand total of 18,391 net new dwellings are now projected to have been completed over the full plan period (2013-2031). This is above the 17,100 minimum figure of housing need outlined by the new Local Plan.” …

… “3.1 The final page of the HMU sets out the five year land supply calculation based on the 30 September 2015 monitor. It shows that East Devon can demonstrate 5.54 years supply of land for housing taking account of a 20% buffer as required by paragraph 47 of the NPPF for authorities that have persistently under-delivered in previous years.

3.2 Paragraph 47 of the NPPF sets out that in calculating the five year land supply authorities should apply a 5% buffer, or a 20% buffer where there has been a record of persistent under delivery. Application of the 20% buffer is a conservative approach to take. The Council could be more bullish and say that clearly it is now delivering above requirements and so the 5% buffer should apply in which case the Council could demonstrate a higher land supply figure, but it is recommended to apply the 20% figure for the time being.

3.3 This, along with the application of SHLAA methodology build-out rates and a robust but conservative assessment of future windfalls means that it is harder for an appellant to argue the five year supply figure down.

3.4 The calculation shows that over the five year period a surplus of 617 net new dwellings are projected to be built over the district as a whole. This is a healthy surplus that means that should certain sites not deliver or under-deliver there is an added buffer of supply. …”


One thought on “Local Plan: more than 1,000 extra homes already projected – 18,391 not 17,100”

Paul F says:
29 Apr 2016 at 10:34am

In reality is is going to be much worse than this.

If you look in the Local Plan document, there is a graph / table showing the completions expected per year – and this is very front-loaded with almost all development occurring in the first 10 years of the plan.

In my profession (project management) this is called “planners’ droop” and reflects that there is greater knowledge about what will happen in early years and less knowledge about later years.

But, if the rate of development were to continue in the latter years of the plan at the same rate as the early years of the plan (and there is no reason to believe it won’t) then the total number of homes built during the 18 year Local Plan period could be as high as 23,000.

To put this in perspective, in the 2011 census there were 61,000 homes in East Devon, so growth of 18,391 homes is over 30%, and 23,000 would be 38%.

This is MASSIVE growth – close your eyes and imagine all the existing towns and villages in East Devon, now lump them together and imagine the same area of green fields of Devon. Now imagine those green fields covered in buildings, roads etc. That is what is about to happen to East Devon.

Local Plan: more than 1,000 extra homes already projected – 18,391 not 17,100 | East Devon Watch

See also:
Futures Forum: Housing myths and housing numbers
Futures Forum: Allocating housing numbers in East Devon
Futures Forum: The District Council: housing numbers and neighbourhood plans: "It is important that we should encourage all our settlements to make themselves sustainable for the sake of generations to come."

East Devon CPRE: Housing numbers should be slashed - Claire Wright (Jan 2013)

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