"So you’ve declared a Climate Emergency, now what?" > Exeter University > Thursday 23rd May

A 'Climate Emergency' has been declared - by the County Council and by central government:
Futures Forum: Climate change > County Council declares 'climate emergency' but fails to commit to becoming carbon neutral by 2030

On Tuesday, Extinction Rebellion will be meeting:
Futures Forum: Climate Emergency > What could government be doing? > talk and discussion with Exeter Extinction Rebellion > Tuesday 21st May

And on Thursday, Transition Exeter and the University will also be considering where to go next:

So you’ve declared a Climate Emergency, now what?

Thursday 23 May 2019, 6.00 - 9.00 pm

Alumni Auditorium, The Forum, University of Exeter, Stocker Road, Exeter, EX4 4SZ

Both Devon County Council and the UK Parliament have declared a Climate Emergency. Transition Exeter has partnered with the Exeter University's Global Systems Institute to run a free public event:  Now what?  

The panel will include Youth Striker Sophie Sleeman, climate scientist Richard Betts, newly elected Exeter Green councillor Diana Moore and Alice Mosely speaking on Citizens Assemblies.  

Book your place now, and bring questions and comments to the meeting on Thursday 

Transition Exeter - Home | Facebook 

With more on the Eventbrite site:

So you’ve declared a Climate Emergency, now what?

Date: Thursday 23 May 2019

Time: 18.00 - 20.00

Venue: Alumni Auditorium, The Forum, University of Exeter, Stocker Road, Exeter, EX4 4SZ

Video link: Exchange Lecture Theatre, Penryn Campus

This public event is hosted by the University of Exeter Global Systems Institute in Partnership with Transition Exeter and Exeter Community Energy.

Event Information

On 1 May 2019 UK MPs approved a motion to declare an environment and climate emergency.

More than 60 towns and cities across the UK have already declared "a climate emergency" including Devon and Cornwall County Councils.

Last month the University of Bristol became the first UK university to make a similar declaration. There is no single definition of what "a climate emergency" means but many local authorities state they want to be carbon-neutral by 2030. This will only be achievable through dramatic cuts in emissions which requires social transformation.

What steps are required to achieve rapid and extensive change?

Deep cuts in emissions will involve far-reaching changes to everyday lives, physical infrastructures, patterns of investment and divestment. How can we ensure such change is rapid and extensive, yet also socially acceptable, fair and leaves no-one behind? Research suggests most people are not willing to voluntarily give up consuming meat and dairy products, driving a car and taking overseas holidays.

Is this likely to change? If so, how? What is the potential for a Citizens Assembly to enable social transformation?

This public meeting will explore these issues with a diverse panel and questions from the audience. Join us for some lively discussion and distraction from the European elections!

Panel members

• Event chair: Patrick Devine-Wright, Professor in Human Geography
• Richard Betts, Chair in Climate Impacts
• Alice Moseley, Lecturer in Politics
• A Fridays for Future (Exeter) representative
• Glenn Woodcock, Exeter City Futures
• Local authority / public sector representative (tbc)

A public event hosted by the Global Systems Institute

The Global Systems Institute is applying Earth system science to generating networked solutions. Our aim is to work with others to secure a flourishing future for humanity as an integral part of a life-sustaining Earth system. We are uniting a trans-disciplinary group of researchers, educators and partners to look beyond single ‘environmental’ issues to a truly systemic view of coupled global changes in the human social and economic sphere and the biosphere.

www.exeter.ac.uk/gsi

Venue

Main venue: Alumni Auditorium, The Forum, Streatham Campus, Stocker Road, Exeter, EX4 4SZ. Building number 3 on the Streatham Campus map.

For Streatham maps and directions, please visit this page.

Video link: Exchange Lecture Theatre, The Exchange, Penryn Campus, TR10 9FE.

For Penryn maps and directions, please visit this page.

Registration

To register for the event please click the 'register' link at the top of this page.

If you have any enquiries regarding the event, please email research-events@exeter.ac.uk

Please note filming, recording and photography may take place at this event.

So you’ve declared a Climate Emergency, now what? Registration, Thu 23 May 2019 at 18:00 | Eventbrite
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Climate Emergency > What could government be doing? > talk and discussion with Exeter Extinction Rebellion > Tuesday 21st May

A legitimate question raised by Exeter Extinction Rebellion:

Talking Climate Policies  Extinction Rebellion Event Climate Emergency - What could government be doing? Tuesday 21st May  7 - 9 pm Exeter Community Centre

Talk and discussion about policy options that could cut climate impact with the urgency and scale needed. When government and councils come up with proposals we need to know what would be good enough.  We’ll look at ‘kicks’ that start a process and ‘shifts’ that change the rules

 Climate Emergency - What could government be doing? 
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'Trees for climate change' > former Chief Scientist of Met Office Julia Slingo > Thursday 23rd May

It's Tree Week next week:
Sidmouth Arboretum

And on Thursday evening, Julia Slingo, a patron of the Arboretum, will be giving an illustrated talk to the general public:

‘Trees for climate change’

7:30 pm - 9:00 pm
Music Room, Sidholme Hotel, Elysian Fields, 
Sidmouth, EX10 8UJ

Trees for climate change - Illustrated talk by Julia Slingo - Vision Group for Sidmouth

Dame Julia Slingo served as Chief Scientist of the UK Met Office from 2009 to 2016:
Julia Slingo | Royal Society

And has given all manner of speeches:

The Evolution of Climate Science: A Personal View from Julia Slingo | World Meteorological Organization

Including at NASA back in January:

NASA Climate Change

Published 09.05.2019

Dame Julia Slingo served as Chief Scientist of the U.K. Met Office from 2009 to 2016 when she retired. Throughout her research career she has developed and used complex weather and climate models to understand the climate system and to predict its evolution. Her special interests are in tropical weather and climate variability, understanding their influence on the global climate system and their role in monthly to decadal climate prediction. 

Climate change will be one of the defining challenges of the twenty-first century; how we respond will determine our future prosperity, health and well-being and the sustainability of Earth’s natural environment. However, these responses must be underpinned by the best possible climate science to ensure that we make wise decisions on how to build resilience to weather and climate extremes, and adapt to and mitigate climate change. 

In this talk, Dame Julia Slingo will discuss the history of our understanding of how the climate system works, how this understanding has been embedded in the development of climate models, and how we use these models now to guide our actions to deliver a safe and sustainable future. 

Originally presented January 11, 2019, at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California.

Climate Science and its Fundamental Role in 21st Century Challenges - YouTube

It was ten years ago in the run-up to Copenhagen that she released a statement, together with the UK's leading scientific organisations involving most of the UK scientists working on climate change:
Full text: Climate science statement | Environment | The Guardian
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Café Scientifique @ Sidmouth Tree Week >>> a talk on "Trees for Multiple Purposes" > Tuesday 21st May

It's Tree Week next week:
Sidmouth Arboretum

Much of the time will be spent walking through some arboreal delights - and much of the time will be spent talking climate change:
What are the effects of global warming in the UK? - Woodland Trust

The Science Fest's Café Scientifique will be hosting a talk on what a good thing trees are - starting with the climate:

Cafe Scientifique: Sidmouth Tree Week: Trees for Multiple Benefits

Tuesday 21st May 2019 3:00 PM –to 4:30 PM

Location/Venue: Kennaway House Coburg Road EX10 8NG

Trees for Multiple Benefits with Bob Chard, Member of the Royal Forestry Society

VISION FOR A FOREST NATION

So now it is accepted as true. Climate change is for real and a very urgent emergency problem. The Government is going into panic mode about what to do. We have to give them some credit for their vision. UK is the first nation in the world to adopt necessary climate action targets which are both adequate and credible. Also in some respects including forestry policy the UK Government is quite well prepared for fast acceleration in new directions. We will commit to a very large increase in tree planting targets to double the woodland area. 

However achieving tree planting number targets is the easy part; what is of more  concern to me is the more difficult part. Will we plant the right trees and will they be planted in the right places?  Will public money be spent wisely and will it be managed in the best possible way? To be sure many people in all walks of life will want to be part of the action but in the past we have made mistakes with forestry policy and we need to learn from that and not simply throw money at achieving targets. 

I would like to share my knowledge and experience with you and suggest some trees which we can all plant and nurture, as well as my own project which is designed to grow unusual trees as substitutes for current unsustainable imports of tropical hardwood timbers; much of which is being illegally felled, is uncertified and imported from the other side of the planet with a large carbon footprint, at ever increasing cost.  We have to do better.

Everyone welcome. This is a free event so please buy a drink to keep it so

Cafe Scientifique: Sidmouth Tree Week: Trees for Multiple Benefits | Sidmouth Science Festival

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Climate alarmists

There are climate change deniers:
Futures Forum: Climate change sceptics 'are losing their grip'

And there are climate change alarmists:
Climate Alarmists | Heartland Institute 
News - Fake Climate Science and Scientists | Heartland Institute
Climate Alarmists Admit They Want to Dismantle Our Free-Enterprise System | The Heritage Foundation

The Sceptical Science website is debating these issues:
There are genuine climate alarmists, but they're not in the same league as deniers

Here's the original piece from last July's Guardian:

There are genuine climate alarmists, but they're not in the same league as deniers

Deniers have conservative media outlets and control the Republican Party; climate alarmists are largely ignored

Dana Nuccitelli

Mon 9 Jul 2018 11.00 BSTLast modified on Sat 14 Jul 2018 22.41 BST

Those who debunk climate change misinformation often face a dilemma. We’re flooded with such a constant deluge of climate myths, where should we focus our efforts? Climate misinformation is propagated via congressional climate hearings, conservative media outlets, denial blogs, and even from some genuine climate alarmists. 

Specifically, there has recently been a debate as to whether Skeptical Science– a website with a database of climate myths and scientific debunkings, to which I’m a primary contributor – would be more useful and effective if it called out misinformation from ‘alarmists,’ and if it eliminated or revised its Climate Misinformers page.

Stephan Lewandowsky #FBPE

✔@STWorg

 · Jul 1, 2018

Replying to @STWorg and 7 others

@NaomiOreskes @MichaelEMann

Richard Betts

✔@richardabetts

I describe the SkS lists as political because their 'misinformer' lists don't include those on the 'climate action' side who actively deny science & espouse conspiracy ideation eg. https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmenvaud/writev/1088/pcb13.pdf … or who unjustifiably talk-up doomsday stories https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/scientists-explain-what-new-york-magazine-article-on-the-uninhabitable-earth-gets-wrong-david-wallace-wells/ …

10

10:24 PM - Jul 1, 2018

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Scientists explain what New York Magazine article on "The Uninhabitable Earth" gets wrong

"While it is clear that ongoing warming of the global climate would eventually have very severe consequences, the concept of the Earth becoming uninhabitable within anywhere near the timescales...

climatefeedback.org

16 people are talking about this

There is some validity to these critiques, and in response, Skeptical Science is renaming the page ‘Climate misinformation by source.’ But the site is run entirely by a team of international volunteers, and as such, opportunity costsmust be considered. Time devoted to refuting alarmists is time not devoted to debunking the constant deluge of climate denial.

Unlike deniers, climate alarmists are not influential

Climate deniers are obviously incredibly influential. Despite their lack of supporting evidence or facts, not only do 28% of Americans continue to believe that global warming is natural and 14% that it’s not even happening, but deniers also dictate Republican Party policy. Republican policymakers constantly invite deniers to testify in congressional hearings, including many of those featured on the Skeptical Science misinformers page.

There is no symmetry on the other side of the aisle. In those same congressional hearings, Democratic Party policymakers invite mainstream climate scientists to testify. Their party policy is based on the consensus of 97% of the climate science community.

Ultimately, the issue boils down to a warped ‘Overton Window’ – the range of ideas tolerated in public discourse. In the real world, we have climate deniers on one extreme, alarmists on the other, and mainstream climate science in the middle. But the public discourse is warped – we instead have a heavy focus on climate denial among conservative media outlets and policymakers, a heavy focus on mainstream climate science among reputable media outlets and liberal policymakers, and the alarmists are largely ignored. Michael Tobis nicely diagrammed this in the climate Overton Window:

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 The climate Overton Window. In the public discourse, there’s a heavy focus on climate denial and mainstream climate science, while the more alarmist outcomes are largely ignored. Illustration: Michael Tobis and Stephen Ban.

But there are some alarmists

That being said, there are a few reasonably well-known individuals who could be accurately described as climate alarmists. The most prominent is Guy McPherson, who decided in 2002 that climate change would likely drive humans to extinction by 2030. Sixteen years later, we’re now more than halfway to 2030 and the global human population has grown from 6.3 bn to 7.6 bn. It’s quite safe to say we won’t go extinct in the next few decades.

McPherson’s case basically boils down to arguing that feedbacks like large methane releases will soon kick in, causing a rapid spike in global warming that will lead to global extinctions. One of his primary pieces of supporting evidence is that Earth System Sensitivity – which describes how sensitive the climate is to the increased greenhouse effect over millennia – is higher than the shorter-term climate sensitivity.

That was essentially the gist of a recent study profiled here in the Guardian. Over millennia, global temperatures and sea level rise will continue to rise beyond what climate models predict will happen over the next couple of centuries. But these are slow feedbacks, and as such won’t kick in within the next few decades. Scott Johnson did a very deep dive into McPherson’s flawed arguments, for those who want to learn about them in greater detail.

As another example, Peter Wadhams predicted in 2012 that the Arctic would be ice-free in the summer by 2016. In fact, the summer of 2012 saw a dramatic decline in year-to-year Arctic sea ice extent (down to 3.6 million square km), which Wadhams believed would become the norm. That hasn’t yet been the case – there were 4.7 million square km of Arctic sea ice in the summer of 2016.

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 September Arctic sea ice extent. Illustration: National Snow and Ice Data Center

It’s worth noting that Wadhams gets most of the climate science right. There is absolutely a long-term decline in Arctic sea ice, which is in the midst of what many have described as a ‘death spiral.’ And Arctic sea ice is thinning rapidly. The Arctic will eventually be ice-free in the summer, but not within the next few years. According to Met Office Chief Scientist Julia Slingo, 2025–2030 would be the earliest date for an ice-free Arctic summer, and 2040–2060 is more likely. Wadhams also believes that there may soon be a large methane release from the Arctic, but a review of the relevant research suggests this isn’t a near-term concern:

There is no evidence that methane will run out of control and initiate any sudden, catastrophic effects. There’s certainly no runaway greenhouse. Instead, chronic methane releases will supplement the primary role of CO2.

Climate denial is a much bigger problem

Wadhams has received some mainstream media attention, including in the Guardian, but his more alarmist warnings are largely ignored. There certainly isn’t a powerful political party basing its climate policies on his inaccurate predictions.

And that’s really the key point. While there are people on ‘both sides’ who spread misinformation, there are far more on the denier than the alarmist side, who are generally far wronger, and the deniers also have a far greater influence over policymakers. 

There’s certainly nothing wrong with debunking overly alarmist claims – in fact, it’s a worthwhile endeavor, and some groups like Climate Feedback do just that. But debunking uninfluential alarmism comes at a cost. It diverts resources away from addressing the never-ending flood of misinformation coming from climate deniers who currently control the climate policy platform of the party in charge of one of the most powerful countries on Earth.

There are genuine climate alarmists, but they're not in the same league as deniers | Dana Nuccitelli | Environment | The Guardian
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