Boating Business - Massive growth of electric vehicles should be noted
In Sidmouth, the community energy group SidEnergy has been working with partners to make it easier to use electric vehicles:
Futures Forum: SVEAG project: Electric car charging point at Hunter's Moon Hotel
Meanwhile, the market for electric-powered transport is hotting up:
Tesla's Model X Is Here, and It's as Awesome as We Hoped | WIRED
6 next-gen electric vehicles taking on Tesla
This might actually help the belleaguered VW:
Could Electric Cars Save Volkswagen? | Carol Pierson Holding
This report from the New Economics Foundation looks at the fall and rise of the EV:
Energy round-up: back from the dead
OCTOBER 2, 2015 // BY: GRIFFIN CARPENTER
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Energy round-up: back from the dead | New Economics Foundation
With a perspective from the United States on how EVs will effect the climate:
Just two months before international climate talks begin in Paris, a new report from energy and environmental groups predicts greenhouse gases can plunge 77 percent in 2050 by electrifying more than half the nation’s cars, trucks and forklifts.
Through electrification of 53 percent of the vehicle miles traveled primarily from passenger cars, small trucks, buses and off-road equipment, along with more wind and solar power plants, the nation would realize a reduction in greenhouse gases of 550 metric tons per year in 35 years, equal to 100 million gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles taken off the road, according to the report.
Put simply, electric vehicles are cleaner than petroleum-fueled vehicles and seen as a partial solution to global warming, the report concluded.
Such a paradigm shift in transportation requires cooperation from California, the leader in electric vehicles, which must convince the other 49 states to enact zero-emission vehicle targets that will translate into more electric cars produced and sold.
CALIFORNIA, UTILITIES LEAD THE WAY
Already, California is committed to 1.5 million electric cars on the road by 2025 for an 80 percent reduction in carbon pollution from the transportation sector by 2050. On Friday, the California Air Resources board continued a plan to cut carbon content from fuels 10 percent by 2020.
With the passage of a pared-down Senate Bill 350 earlier this month, the state will have to generate 50 percent of its electricity from renewable energy by 2030. Though a petroleum reduction clause was removed from the bill, new clean-electricity targets are significant and are being used as fodder by utilities to expand electric transportation in California and beyond, even to the point of replacing petroleum fuels.
THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH ELECTRIC VEHICLES
There are 150,000 electric cars in the state out of 13 million registered automobiles; about 350,000 EVs or plug-in hybrids in the nation out of 250 million automobiles, according to energy officials.
The small number of EVs represents a fraction of the vehicles on the road. Ramping up to more than 50 percent would be a dramatic change but one that utilities and nonprofit think tanks see as doable.
“Is it a slam dunk to achieve 60 percent of vehicle sales (electric) by 2050? We’ll have to see. A lot of things have to happen to reach that potential,” said Mark Duvall, director of energy utilization for the Electric Power Research Institute in Palo Alto.
A WORLD WITH ALL-ELECTRIC DRIVING
EPRI and the Natural Resources Defense Council released their report on Sept. 17, in cooperation with dozens of municipal and investor-owned utilities.
It was part of a consideration for reducing GHG levels to prevent more warming of the planet, which is causing ice sheets to shrink, sea levels to rise and record warm temperatures in the western United States, including California.
The two nonprofit groups were first to use battery-electric cars such as those from Tesla, Nissan and Chevrolet as part of a model predicting air emission and GHG reductions in 2050.
The study’s lower GHG scenario also figures a cheaper cost of natural gas, closure of higher-polluting coal plants and increasing the number of clean-fuel plants such as those run on wind, solar and geothermal power for generating electricity, as well as a price penalty on higher-carbon fuels. The base calculation, without the carbon penalty, will reduce 430 metric tons in 2050 or the equivalent of 80 million passenger cars.
No other report studies what would happen if more than half the miles traveled would be via electric power.
“It’s based on a sophisticated model of the electric transportation sector. We’ve proven you can get there,” Duvall said.
Tens of millions of cars and light-trucks would have to run on battery power. More importantly, the power needed to charge them must be available.
The report figures even with a 62 percent share of light and medium-duty vehicles as electric in 2050, those EVs would consume only 13 percent of grid-supplied electricity.
IS THERE ENOUGH POWER?
“The grid is ready for this. And transportation will benefit from it,” said Ed Kjaer, director of transportation electrification for Southern California Edison.
Edison is mandated by state law to increase the amount of renewable energy. Currently, 22 percent of all the energy supplied by SCE comes from renewables and that must reach 50 percent by 2030, he said.
He called transportation the last industrial sector to electrify. Cars can plug in to the grid at night, when power is not being used by air conditioners. By increasing usage, it forces Edison to add new solar, wind and geothermal plants to the grid, he said.
“We see the benefits of connecting transportation to the grid: reducing GHGs, air quality and increasing efficiency of the electrical system while helping to introduce renewables into the system,” Kjaer said.
California air quality rules require an increasing scale of zero-emission vehicles each year, Duvall explained. The numbers will go from 35,000 a year to double in 2018 to 15 percent of all car sales by 2025.
Oregon and several Northeastern states have adopted California’s ZEV targets, meaning these states will see more EV sales as well. Duvall says it is possible there will be close to 4 million EVs on the road in the U.S. by 2025.
ELECTRIC VEHICLE PRICES DROPPING
Since the release of the all-electric Nissan Leaf in 2011 and in the same year, the Chevrolet Volt, a battery-powered car with a small, gasoline-powered generator that runs the electric drive train if necessary, more automakers have jumped on the battery-electric or plug-in hybrid bandwagon.
From 2016 to 2020, Duvall says 24 new electric car models will be sold in the United States. Audi, Porsche and Mercedes-Benz are investing heavily in battery-electric cars, perhaps as competition for the luxury Tesla Model S, which has about a 265-mile range between charges and costs between $70,000 and $105,000.
Like computers and smart phones, as more electric cars are made, the prices will drop, he said. In 10 years, the sticker price of a electric car will be equal to that of a similar-sized gasoline car, he said.
“Battery costs are declining, the cost of motors and controllers and all the things unique to electric vehicles are dropping significantly,” Duvall said.
Fueling an electric car is about the equivalent of paying $1 per gallon of gasoline and that doesn’t include the reduced maintenance costs associated with EVs.
How much can electric cars impact climate change? New report says a lot
A note of caution, however, about where all this electric power will come from:
False Greening in the Auto Industry: Volkswagen and Tricking Emissions | Global Research - Centre for Research on Globalization