Sunday, 28 August 2016

Brexit: and Devon has the largest fall in house prices

There have been concerns from before and immediately after the referendum over house prices:
Futures Forum: Brexit: and house prices in Devon
Futures Forum: Brexit: and housebuilders in East Devon: part two

London seems to be seeing the worst falls:
Brexit hitting Greater London property hardest | Mortgage Introducer
Central London house prices 'set for sharp fall' after Brexit | London | News | London Evening Standard

As reported in the Telegraph earlier this week:

House prices forecast to fall after Brexit

Isabelle Fraser  22 AUGUST 2016

House prices will fall next year as the uncertainty surrounding Brexit takes hold, but far less than the Treasury’s gloomy warning before the EU referendum.

In its first post-Brexit forecast, estate agency Countrywide said that house prices will fall 1pc across the country in 2017, before rising by 2pc in 2018. It added that house prices would rise by just 2.5pc this year as the market cools in the second half of 2016.

In December 2015, with a Leave vote far from certain, Countrywide forecast that house prices would rise by 4.5pc in England and Wales during 2016 and 2017.

However, Countrywide said that the cooling market was not just down to uncertainty about Brexit. It also highlighted the impact of stamp duty increases on the top end of the market, and said that the chronic lack of supply of homes would continue to keep prices from falling further.

The Guardian, however, points to Devon as suffering the biggest fall:

Is Britain on the verge of a Brexit-fuelled house price crash? 
Only the data will tell

The long-term effect of the referendum on the housing market is impossible to predict. But there’s no doubt: sales have slowed and prices fallen since the vote

Thursday 25 August 2016 Danny Dorling

This week, exactly two months after the vote for Brexit, I spent an hour on the property site Zoopla looking at the latest housing sale data available. Anyone can do this at the click of a button. Unlike the rise in stamp duty in April, which was well anticipated, the vote to leave the EU was not. And all markets react most strongly to the unanticipated.

A few more clicks on Zoopla reveal that London hasn’t had the largest Brexit-associated price falls. They were, in fact, in Devon (-3.1%); Cumbria (-3%); Surrey, the Isle of Wight, Norfolk, Gloucestershire, West Sussex, Leicestershire, Somerset (all -2.9%), Cornwall and Hampshire (both -2.8%). The populations of some of these areas are more elderly than average, and urgent sales may be more common as a result but when house prices fall it is typical of the English to refuse to sell.

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