Sunday, 17 February 2019

Brexit: and the precarious position of East Devon's MP

There have been mixed messages from the MP for East Devon over Brexit:

It has been 'no deal is better that a bad deal':
Futures Forum: Brexit: and East Devon's MP saying 'we should get on with it'

But it has also been 'let's tweak the deal':
Futures Forum: Brexit: and East Devon's MP's amendment
Futures Forum: Brexit: and East Devon's MP's amendment as damage limitation

And writing a fortnight ago, Sir Hugo declared that "the EU should make concessions":
Hugo Swire writes about Brexit | Latest Exmouth News - Exmouth Journal

It is not clear who this message is intended for - but probably for members of his own party:
Futures Forum: Brexit: and two-thirds of Conservative Party members opting for "no-deal rather than a bad deal"

... rather than the wider electorate of East Devon - and certainly Sir Hugo's main rival for his parliamentary seat thinks so:
Futures Forum: Brexit: and a response from East Devon to delaying the vote in parliament

Because increasingly, voters in this part of the UK want a second referendum:
Devon voters now want to Remain in Europe, major new survey reveals - Devon Live (April 2018)
BREXIT LATEST: REMAIN could WIN second referendum - vote will turn UGLY warns May deputy | Politics | News | Express.co.uk (November 2018)
53% of voters in the South West would now vote Remain, Channel 4 poll reveals - Devon for Europe (November 2018)Half of Devon wants a second vote on Brexit - and most would vote remain - Devon Live (December 2018)

The polls do keep going up and down though, with all of rather confused, according to this one last month:
What you REALLY think about Brexit, no-deal and our MPs' behaviour - Devon Live

And yet in another poll conducted at the same time it was 'stop Brexit':

Tiverton Brexit-ometer reveals town wants an end to Brexit chaos - Devon Live

Meanwhile in Sidmouth, a similar poll conducted in the Market Square yesterday had very similar results. Which poses the question of how precarious the position of the current MP for East Devon is - that is, someone who voted Remain but now backs Brexit, in a constituency which in June 2016 was split 50/50:

Tories would lose Devon seat but win election if vote was called this month

One Devon MP would find themselves out of a job, according to the latest research


Neil Shaw Head Of Digital, Live And Trending For PlymouthLive, DevonLive And CornwallLive
06:23, 12 FEB 2019

The Conservatives would win a working majority if a general election was held now, according to YouGov modelling.

Theresa May's party was forecast to win 321 seats - up from 317 at the last election - while Labour would lose 12 seats, the research for The Times suggested.

The SNP and the Liberal Democrats were each predicted to gain four seats, while Ukip would again win nothing.

But the market research company, which correctly forecast the 2017 result, predicted the Tories would see a fall in their estimated vote share, from 43.4% in 2017 to 39.4%, if an election was called this month.

Jeremy Corbyn's party would also see a drop, from 41% to 34.2%, while the Liberal Democrats and Ukip were forecast to see a rise in vote share.

YouGov polled 40,119 people between February 2 and 7.

The pollsters found Labour was most likely to lose Sheffield Hallam - Nick Clegg's old seat which was won by Jared O'Mara in the last election - as well as disgraced ex-Labour MP Fiona Onasanya's Peterborough seat.

The Conservatives would lose Zac Goldsmith's Richmond Park seat and Sir Hugo Swire's East Devon, according to the research.

Tories would lose Devon seat but win election if vote was called this month - Devon Live

No comments: