Climate change: "COP21: a new world order?" >>> >>> "History teaches us that even small changes in climate can result in famine, often leading to disease, civil war and revolution. We ignore the signs at our peril."

Earlier this month, Prof Brian Golding of the Met Office gave a presentation following the UN conference on climate change:
Futures Forum: Climate change: "COP21: a new world order?" >>> >>> Monday February 8th at 7.30pm >>> the Norman Lockyer Observatory

In a letter in the latest Herald, Prof Golding refers to points he made in his presentation - published here with permission:


Dear Sir/Madam,

In response to your correspondent on the subject of our changing climate, the increasing replacement of oxygen by carbon dioxide in our atmosphere is a fact, shown by routine analysis of the composition of the air in places remote from industry. 

Carbon dioxide currently has 45% greater concentrations than in pre-industrial times and more than one third higher than the highest concentrations found in ice-trapped bubbles from the Antarctic going back almost one million years. 

The average surface air temperature of the earth is a balance between heat coming from the sun and heat radiated by the earth, some of which warms the atmosphere, which in turn radiates more heat to the earth. 

The fact that the earth's atmosphere traps heat in this way, making the earth some 32 degrees Celsius warmer than it would otherwise be, and thereby habitable, was demonstrated in 1827 by Joseph Fourier. 

By the end of the 19th century it was understood how different gases contribute and how an increase in those gases would further increase the average temperature of the earth. 

What modern science has added is a search for mechanisms by which the earth might prefer our current temperature range over one that is warmer or cooler, regardless of any change in the heat-absorbing gases. 

We now know, to a high degree of certainty, that no such mechanism exists, and that increasing carbon dioxide will inevitably lead to a warmer world. 

Last year was globally the warmest year in our records: substantially warmer than 1998 - due to a combination of natural, short-term processes added to the trend from human emissions of carbon dioxide. 

That underlying trend has now reached 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial values - more in some parts of the world and less in others. 

History teaches us that even small changes in climate can result in famine, often leading to disease, civil war and revolution. We ignore the signs at our peril.


Regards,
Brian Golding

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