Saturday, 26 December 2015

Futurists >>> and the promises of science and technology >>> Part two: "Approaching exponential innovation"

The notion of 'futurism' today carries with it a tremendous amount of optimism for the future:
brandchannel: Ford Futurist Sheryl Connelly Issues 2016 Trends Report

We Are Approaching Exponential Innovation

The futurists sound more believable every day

In his 1999 book The Age of Spiritual Machines, the famed futurist Ray Kurzweil proposed “The Law of Accelerating Returns.” According to Kurzweil’s law, “the rate of change in a wide variety of evolutionary systems (including but not limited to the growth of technologies) tends to increase exponentially.” I mention Kurzweil’s observation, because it is sure beginning to feel like we are entering an age of colossal and rapid change. Consider the following:
According to the Telegraph, “Genes which make people intelligent have been discovered [by researchers at the Imperial College London] and scientists believe they could be manipulated to boost brain power.” This could usher in an era of super-smart humans and accelerate the already fast process of scientific discovery.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket has successfully “blasted off from Cape Canaveral, delivered communications satellites to orbit before its main-stage booster returned to a landing pad.” Put differently, space flight has just become much cheaper since main-stage booster rockets, which were previously non-reusable, are also very expensive.
The CEO of Merck has announced a major breakthrough in the fight against lung cancer. Keytruda “is a new category of drugs that stimulates the body’s immune system.” “Using Keytruda,” Kenneth Frazier said, “will extend [the life of lung cancer sufferers] … by approximately 13 months on average. We know that it will reduce the risk of death by 30-40 percent for people who had failed on standard chemo-therapy.”
Also, there has been massive progress in the development of “edible electronics.” New technology developed by Bristol Robotics Laboratory “will allow the doctor to feel inside your body without making a single incision, effectively taking the tips of the doctor’s fingers and transplant them onto the exterior of the [edible] robotic pill. When the robot presses against the interior of the intestinal tract, the doctor will feel the sensation as if her own fingers were pressing the flesh.”

We Are Approaching Exponential Innovation | Foundation for Economic Education


Magic Leap

In 2015, we have seen so many technologies come to the forefront. Just before the end of each year I look to the developments of the past 2 or 3 years, the biggest news stories, and the radical new thinkers to gain a perspective of what we can expect to happen with technology for the following year.
In addition to my societal predictions, here are my top-5 technology predictions for 2016. Hold onto your hat, 2016 is going to be an amazing year of world-changing technology.

1. Cyborgs hail the end of physical disability

A ‘cyborg’ is a person whose physical abilities are extended beyond normal human limitations by mechanical elements built into the body. I am one (well, I do have a chip implanted in my hand), and you are one. In fact, almost everyone in the world is one these days, as we all carry smartphones that provide us with extended abilities to remember, capture, and share.
However some people need technology more than others, and 2016 will be the year when the word disability disappears and is replaced with ‘enhanced ability’. On the 8th of October 2016, The Championship for Robot-Assisted athletes – The Cybathlon – happens in Zurich, Switzerland.
The Cybathlon is a championship for pilots with disabilities who are using advanced assistive devices including robotic technologies.
The competitions are comprised of different disciplines that will test the ability of pilots to navigate a series of everyday tasks while using a powered knee prosthesis, wearable arm prosthesis, powered exoskeleton, powered wheelchair, electrically stimulated muscles, and novel brain-computer interfaces.
I see a world where there are no longer wheelchairs and disabled access is no longer required in the same way it is today. I also think that able-bodied people will take advantage as well. Now, where did I leave my exoskeleton?

2. Cinematic Reality overshadows Augmented and Virtual Reality

The tech world has been buzzing about Virtual and Augmented Reality (VR and AR) for some years now, and now we are on the cusp of it hitting the mainstream. This past year we’ve seen Oculus, HTC Vive, Google Cardboard, Rove, and all manner of platforms being established. But, in 2016, I think it will be Magic Leap that will change everything. Last year Google walked out of a demo and gave the company over $540 million to take it to the next level. But why all the fuss? Cinematic Reality (CR). The idea that you can build cinematic quality images in the eye, not on a screen, is not only an incredible innovation, it’s a revolution!
In the future this is what we will call entertainment:
I also wrote an article earlier this year called From Rectangles to Reality: A Primer on Virtual Reality that speculates that the screens we use – PC, laptop, Smartphone – will disappear with the advent of wide adoption of VR and AR and interfaces that exist in front of our eyes (no, not Google Glass). A Vancouver tech company, HUMAN, is working towards that goal using VR, AR, and wearable technologies. An exciting time, and Ryan Betts, one of the founders of HUMAN, outlines the step change in how we need to see digital experience going forward:
    – “Above the Fold” is now “Before the Horizon”
    – “Scrolling” is now “Strolling”
    – “Resolution” is now “Rate”
    – “Styrofoam” is now “Cloud computing”

3. Humans will be Customizable through Gene Editing

What if we could alter our genetic makeup to help eradicate congenital conditions?
There have been huge developments in this field and CRISPR-Cas9 is at the forefront of revolutionising medicine. CRISPR is an RNA-guided gene-editing platform that makes use of Cas9, a bacterially derived protein, and a synthetic guide RNA to introduce a double-strand break at a specific location within the genome. Hold on, I need help explaining this:
CRISPR allows scientists to edit genomes with unprecedented precision, efficiency, and flexibility, and we have seen many developments with CRISPR, including creating monkeys with targeted mutations to preventing HIV infection in human cells. Earlier this month, Chinese scientists announced they applied the technique to nonviable human embryos, hinting at CRISPR’s potential to cure any genetic disease. And yes, it might even lead to designer babies.
What’s amazing about this technology is that CRISPR is actually a naturally-occurring, ancient defense mechanism found in a wide range of bacteria and experiments have been happening since the 1980s.

4. Artificial Intelligence will change our world

The robots are coming! Well, robot brains are, at least.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is the assumed ‘intelligence’ exhibited by machines or software in the tasks and interactions. Dr Sanjay Modgil from King’s College in London, UK helps us understand what AI is:
Research and adoption into commercial applications is gaining pace. But why do we need it?
Well, each day we create more than 2.5 quintillion, that’s 10 to the power of 18, bytes of data. That’s so much data that 90% of the world’s data today has been created in the last two years alone (source: IBM). Inside of that data is the opportunity to take humanity to the next level, and AI will help unlock the potential.
In advanced machine learning, deep neural nets (DNNs) move beyond classic computing and information management to create systems that can autonomously learn to perceive the world, on their own. in 2015 Google released it AI platform TensorFlow on the world to help gain momentum in the development of applications and Facebook has its system – Em – integrated as well:
AI like this will power the future of business, medicine, and the systems that we use in society. It will unlock opportunities we have never imagined before.

5. Cars will drive themselves

The final prediction for 2016 is around self-driving cars. The news is full of buzz in this area and it’s inevitable that eventually we will live in a world where we will no longer drive. We will be chauffeured. Here’s Stephen Colbert talking about his Tesla:
Cars can no longer be seen as just vehicles, they are software platforms. All major car brands are developing self-driving vehicles. This is a good thing. In the US alone there are about 35,000 deaths caused through bad driving and accidents. What if we all just stopped driving and let the vehicles do the work for us? Less fun, sure. But really, how much fun is the gridlock in Vancouver anyway?
Welcome to the future!

5 Futurist predictions for 2016 | BetaKit

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