Futures Forum: "The eulogies for peak oil came too soon."
... the current upward growth in fossil fuel resources has been seen as a bad thing for the climate and for alternative energy sources:
Futures Forum: Climate change: and lower oil prices
Futures Forum: Squaring the circle: low oil prices, high renewable prices ... ... and high carbon emissions
But low prices does not necessarily promote an industry
Futures Forum: Peak Oil as a concept is finished: "Now a huge amount of money and smart people are invested in replacing much energy production dependent on oil: This scares the oil producing countries and they start reducing the price of the oil to keep people consuming their product for longer."
... whatever the industry might promise:
Futures Forum: "Exposing the futuristic fantasies deployed by the fossil-fuel companies"
Futures Forum: "Abundant, cheap electricity has been the greatest source of human liberation in the 20th century."
Meanwhile, there is the play of global politics at work over what we burn:
Futures Forum: Fracking vs European dependence on imported Russian gas
Futures Forum: Climate change: 'stranded assets' and 'unburnable oil' ... or the pressures to leave oil and gas in the ground
Futures Forum: Energy crisis, what energy crisis? ... "Understanding Our Oil-Related Fiscal Cliff." ... But "the shift toward renewables has several difficulties..."
The economic models, however, suggest that too much supply is bad for business - but good for the rest of us:
Futures Forum: Overproduction and the end of Big Oil's business model
Futures Forum: Transitioning to a post-scarcity world
And the consensus is that demand is falling:
'Perfect storm' threatens $280bn of gas projects, study finds
Carbon Tracker says cheaper green technologies and falling demand will leave billions of planned LNG projects shelved
Over $280bn of possible liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects are likely to be left ‘uneconomic' if the world acts to limit dangerous global warming, researchers will say today.
While the world can afford some gas market growth and remain on course to meet the internationally agreed goal of capping global temperature rise at 2⁰C, this expansion is "not anywhere near as much as the industry projects", according to the latest paper by the Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI).
The organisation has already spelled out a dire for future for oil and coal, predicting that falling prices, low demand, and environmental legislation set to put at risk around $550bn of oil investments and $112bn-worth of future coal power projects.
Now the same analysis has been applied to the global gas market, with the warning that a ‘perfect storm' of cheaper renewables, stronger energy efficiency measures, new storage technologies, higher carbon prices and fluctuating energy prices will force down gas prices.
All of these trends are likely to be accelerated by the worldwide emissions reduction deal set to be signed at the UN climate change summit in Paris later this year, while the industry is also facing pressure from a glut of LNG, which will likely see the cheapest sources used first.
"Investors should scrutinise the true potential for growth of LNG businesses over the next decade," said James Leaton, Carbon Tracker's head of research. "The current oversupply of LNG means there is already a pipeline of projects waiting to come on stream. It is not clear whether these will be needed and generate value for shareholders."
The “Upside Down” Peak Oil Story
The “Upside Down” Peak Oil Story | OilPrice.com
Who’s To Blame For The Oil Price Crash?
Who’s To Blame For The Oil Price Crash? | OilPrice.com
This is all covered in this latest piece from the Nation:
Plummeting Oil Prices Might Be Good News for the Planet