Friday, 11 November 2016

Brexit: and the construction industry

The future of the construction industry is pretty uncertain:
Futures Forum: Brexit: and the construction industry in the West Country
Futures Forum: Brexit: and the future of infrastructure projects in the South-West
Futures Forum: Brexit: and scaling back: "businesses will hold off committing to major capital expenditure for a long time to come"
Futures Forum: Brexit: and housebuilders in East Devon: part two

The latest figures from the Office of National Statistics can be interpreted rather differently...

This way:
Silver lining in worst quarter for construction in four years | Business | The Times & The Sunday Times
Infrastructure work boosts UK construction figures - Financial Times

Or this way:
UK construction sees worst quarter in four years after Brexit vote - Sky News
UK construction weakest in four years, ONS says - BBC News

Statistics and damned statistics:

Construction downturn after Brexit vote not as deep as feared
Szu Ping Chan 11 NOVEMBER 2016 

Monthly construction output rose by 0.3pc in September. CREDIT: BLOOMBERG
The downturn in construction output following the Brexit vote was less severe than feared, official data showed on Friday, but economists warned that the sector faced "severe challenges ahead".
Output fell by 1.1pc in the three months to September compared with the previous quarter, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The drop was shallower than the decline of 1.4pc initially estimated by the ONS, although it remained the worst quarterly fall in output for four years, led by a big slump in repair and maintenance work.
Monthly output rose by 0.3pc in September, while August’s month-to-month figure also was revised to a shallower decline of 1.1pc, having initially been put at -1.5pc.
The ONS said the slight upward revision to the quarterly figure had no impact on overall UK growth.

Construction downturn after Brexit vote not as deep as feared


Brexit: UK construction at weakest level for four years

Official figures showed output in the construction sector, which accounts for 6 per cent of the UK economy, slipped by 1.1 per cent
Ben Woods 9 hours ago 32 comments

Britain's construction industry churned out its weakest performance for four years in the first three months after the Brexit vote.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have painted a gloomy picture of the industry, with output falling by 1.1 per cent in the third quarter compared with a 0.1 per cent fall in the quarter before.
The slump was largely driven by a 3.6 per cent drop in repair and maintenance, which was partly offset by a 0.3 per cent increase in all new work.

However, the sector bucked expectations of a September slowdown thanks to a jump in infrastructure work.
The ONS said construction output rose 0.3 per cent in September, up from a revised 1.1 per cent fall in August and above economists' expectations of a 0.4 per cent drop.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, said it was a lacklustre end to a poor quarter from the construction sector.
“September's rise of 0.3 per cent was insufficient to prevent construction output clearly contracting in the third quarter, by 1.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter,” he said.
“This was the weakest performance since the third quarter of 2012. In fact, by contracting 1.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter after a dip of 0.1 per cent in the second quarter, the sector is effectively in recession.”

No comments: