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Sunday, 5 March 2017

The relocalisation movement and Richard Heinberg >>> “Transition is more important than ever in a world of Donald Trump”

Back in November 2014, Rob Hopkins of the Transition Network interviewed Richard Heingberg, journalist and author on environmentatl issues:
Futures Forum: Peak Oil: 10 Years After 'The Party's Over': an interview with Richard Heinberg

In the wake of 'events' in the United States, here is another session from them both:

Richard Heinberg on ‘America First’.







“Transition is more important than ever in a world of Donald Trump”, Richard Heinberg tells us.
Eight minutes into his inauguration speech, Donald Trump presented one of his key policy shifts.  “America First”, he announced.  And then, again, in case anyone had missed it, this time more slowly and deliberately, “America First”.  He went on to embellish: “Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs, will be made to benefit American workers and American families”.
From a Transition perspective, a shortening of trade distances has to be a good thing, right?  Bringing manufacturing back closer to where people live, thereby reducing carbon emissions, enabling more money to cycle within the national economy rather than globally?  So far, so Transition… And yet.  Over the next few weeks, we will be talking to leading figures in the relocalisation movement, and asking them what distinguishes their approach and that of Trump.
We start with Richard Heinberg, a Senior Fellow with the Post-Carbon Institute, who for the last 10 or 15 years has written mostly on energy issues but also the larger questions about how society has evolved to its current situation and what the opportunities and challenges are likely to be going forward.  You can either hear the podcast, or read an edited transcript below.
As somebody who has argued very strongly for the idea of intentional localisation and building economic resilience and for a move away from globalisation, what do you think of ‘America First’?
Firstly it’s important to understand that this is one of the main things that got Trump elected.  Americans I think across the board have been becoming more and more wary about the hidden costs of globalisation.  There were a number of us thumping that tub all the way back in the 1990s of course.
Folks may remember the ‘Battle in Seattle’ in 1999 when there was a World Trade Organisation meeting in Seattle and it was disrupted by masses of people in the streets.  But that was a phenomenon of the Left and meanwhile simmering under the radar, to mix metaphors, a lot of ordinary folks who would certainly not consider themselves radicals or leftists or anything like that, in the US, found themselves increasingly experiencing declining or stagnant wages and moving to lower wage jobs, and seeing that at least partly as a result of off-shoring of production.  The US moving its manufacturing to China and other countries, Mexico.
So there was this simmering undercurrent of resentment about globalisation that Donald Trump was able to tap into.  Now he, having been elected, is acting on his campaign promises left and right, often quite scarily.  Usually with very little forethought as to how he’s actually going to accomplish things.
So most of these Executive Orders are very poorly written, most of them are being drafted either directly by or with the collaboration of his inner circle of decision makers including Steve Bannon.  And Bannon, for those who don’t know, formerly ran a far-right website called Breitbart, and has been quoted as saying, “Lenin wanted to destroy the state and that’s my goal too.  I want to bring everything crashing down and destroy all of today’s establishment.”  So that’s who Steve Bannon is.
"If all we’re able to do over the next four years is resist some of the worst of what Trump is proposing, then at the end of that time, we will certainly not be in any better position to deal with what’s coming down the road".

What the Trump administration is doing is it’s creating chaos left and right.  It’s exacerbating the already extreme political polarisation in the country.  So you have the Red states and the Blue states.  And people are moving.  People who see themselves as conservative are leaving the Blue states and moving to the Red states and vice-versa.  The country is I think possibly approaching another civil war.  Or at least a dissolution of a lot of the basic ties that have bound together the States since the Civil War.  This is truly a political and governmental crisis of proportions that we really haven’t seen, again, since the Civil War.  I think it would be wrong to underestimate the prospects for chaos and repression in the United States right now.
And in terms of that ‘America First’ concept, how does the way that Donald Trump’s brain imagine ‘American First’ differ from the way Richard Heinberg’s brain imagines the concept of ‘America First’?
I have been among those who have been calling for import substitution and relocalisation of production.  I’ve been calling for that in the context of a deliberate policy of de-growth.  Winding down the rate at which we use energy and materials, so that we can approach some kind of sustainable level of economic throughput.  Of course, that’s not a very popular position.  But that’s really the context in which I see localisation as being a sensible policy.
In my view localisation is something that is led by communities themselves.  The role of the government should be to empower local communities to take more charge of their own economies, to disadvantage big chain stores and importers in favour of local producers, for example.  Right now of course it’s just the opposite situation.
The larger corporations, chain stores, and importers of goods are generally systematically advantaged over Mom and Pop stores and small factories and so on.  So that’s the kind of localisation that I and many others have been promoting.  What we’re seeing with Trump is, I think, more along the lines of American big corporations, American big banks first.  Of course this is being sold to the American people as, “This is going to create more jobs for you and your hometowns” and Trump is a sales man first and foremost above everything.  So of course if he does manage to save a few hundred jobs here or there, he immediately takes credit for that and plays it up big time.
But from a larger perspective, his interests lie not with the little person, the local co-op, but with the big Wall Street interests.  Bannon, for example, was formerly with Goldman Sachs on Wall Street, and Trump has surrounded himself with Goldman Sachs former, or even current executives.  So nobody should kid themselves that this guy is a genuine localist.  His ‘America First’ rhetoric really is geared I think to some possibly kind of batty geo-political ideas and economic ideas that may or may not end up making sense in the real world.
Do you think if America were to make its own steel again, make its own cars, make its own washing machine, to actually rebuild those things and have a protectionist policy around doing that, is that an entirely bad thing?  Is there a way in which that could be done well?  And how would that differ from what he’s trying to do?
It could be done well.  And it should be done.  I agree that America should be making more of its own washing machines or whatever.  It’s going to have to be done in a way that understands the ecological context.  What I mean when I say that is that the process of off-shoring that’s taken place over the past few decades has among other things resulted in the off-shoring of pollution.
So China burns coal to make steel and plastic products and all kinds of stuff for American consumers to buy on the cheap.  So if we repatriate all that production, does that mean we also repatriate all that pollution?  Well evidently Donald Trump thinks that’s the case and he’s perfectly fine with it because he’s in the process of ripping up all the environmental regulations he can possibly get his hands on.  He’s gutting and dismantling the EPA, put a climate denier in charge of it, and wants to increase US coal production dramatically.  Whether that’s realistic or not is another question.
If we’re going to repatriate American production, I would say we also have to look at how things are produced.  What we’re producing, why we’re producing it.  What’s the full life cycle of resource extraction, consumption and production of waste at the end of the cycle.  How do we minimise the ecological impact of that?  That’s not even in discussion among the Trump team.
What would be your advice to Transitioners and relocalisers be at this time?
Well, resistance to the Trump regime is certainly needed and we’re seeing really an extraordinary outpouring of concern and willingness to engage in on the ground political work across the country.  That’s important and that’s needed.
It’s also essential to keep in mind that Transition is about fundamentally something other than that.  Transition is about building the basis for a different world, a different way of life.  It’s a constructive process rather than one of resistance.  Again that resistance is needed but Transition offers a positive, constructive and even visionary path of action that’s desperately needed right now.  If all we’re able to do over the next four years is resist some of the worst of what Trump is proposing, then at the end of that time, we will certainly not be in any better position to deal with what’s coming down the road.
What Transitioners know that most other people don’t is that society is inexorably approaching a Transition toward lower or negative economic growth, that fossil fuels are on their way out one way or another, and that that means inevitably some fundamental changes in the way we live.  So Transition approaches that change in a positive, optimistic attitude, saying, “Well how can we build the basis for a way of life that takes into account these inevitable shifts?”  And engages with them proactively, engages with them in an attitude that says, “How can we do this the best way possible?”  So without Transition I think we’re in for the worst of the worst, and Transition is more important than ever in a world of Donald Trump.
You’ve referred to him elsewhere as the ‘Peak Oil President’.  What did you mean by that?
I think it’s very likely that global oil production will hit its maximum in the next 2, 3, 4 years.  I’ve become very hesitant about making predictions like that after the last number of years, because I’ve been writing about peak oil since my 2003 book, ‘The Party’s Over’.
In that book I endorsed the views of the French petrologist Jean Laherrère who said that global conventional oil production would probably peak sometime around 2005-2010, which it did, and that that would incentivise the production of more unconventional oil, which is exactly what we’ve seen with US tight oil production, Canadian tar sands and so on.  And that unconventional production would probably peak sometime around 2015.  It seems to me that events are confirming his forecast.
Therefore world oil production is probably hitting its maximum right about now, you know, give or take a few years.  That’s going to have immense implications for the global economy, and certainly for the US economy.  I don’t think Donald Trump understands any of this.  There are some people who are advising him who do, but whether their efforts to influence his thinking are successful or even meaningful, I don’t know.  Nevertheless this is a big turning point in history.
Oil is very hard to substitute.  It runs the global economy and without increasing oil production it’s very difficult to imagine the global economy continuing to grow.  That in turn has enormous implications for investments, for stock markets, and therefore also for jobs and wages and the things that most people care about.  So we’re at a big inflexion point, and to have someone like Donald Trump in charge of this fragile moment in history…
On one hand it’s entirely understandable, because people feel that things are going wrong, and therefore they’re willing to vote for somebody who is basically promising just to bring down the temple and create a lot of chaos.  But on the other hand, having someone like that in charge at this moment in history is very worrisome, because things could be done potentially in a much more sane and humane way than we’re likely to see.

You can keep up with Richard’s writings at RichardHeinberg.com or at Resilience.org.  His latest book is ‘Our Renewable Future’.


Richard Heinberg on 'America First'. - Transition Network
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Posted by Jeremy Woodward at 13:23
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  • Forest for Climate
  • Fountain Head Inn
  • Free Economy
  • Freecycle
  • FreelyWheely Honiton
  • Fresh and Green Vegetables
  • Friends of the Byes - BEE Project
  • Funding Circle
  • George Monbiot
  • Graham Cooper Art & Architecture
  • Grand Designs
  • Great War Forum
  • Green Tourism
  • Green Tourism Business Scheme
  • Green World Trust
  • Greenpeace UK
  • Heart of Devon
  • Heart Radio
  • Home Grown Community Owned
  • Home Grown Home
  • Homebuilding & Renovating
  • Homes & Communities Agency
  • Honiton Town Council
  • Housing Voice
  • Idler
  • iGreens
  • Incredible Edible
  • Industrial Railway Society
  • Inside Housing
  • Jeff Rubin
  • Jurassic Coast
  • Kate Lynch
  • Keep Sunday Special
  • Lake District National Park
  • Landscape Institute
  • Landshare
  • Leisure Opportunities
  • Liftshare
  • Local Gov
  • Locality
  • Low Carbon Economy
  • Marblar
  • Mazzard Farm
  • Meadow in my Garden
  • Mid Devon Star
  • My Green Directory
  • National Coordinating Centre for Public Engagement
  • National Home Building Show
  • National Trust
  • National Trust East Devon
  • New Economics Foundation
  • New Internationalist
  • New Local Government Network
  • New Scientist
  • Nova Flore
  • Novatlantis
  • Open Fields
  • Otter Brewery
  • Otter Trail
  • Ottery Gazette
  • Participatory Budgeting
  • Paul's Cycle Route
  • Penn Energy
  • People's Budget
  • Plantlife
  • Plough & Share Credit Union
  • Port Royal Marina
  • Property People
  • Property Reporter
  • Purbeck Society
  • Raining Sideways
  • Regen SW
  • Resilience
  • Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil
  • Royal Academy of Arts
  • Royal Horticultural Society
  • RSPB
  • Rt Hon Hugo Swire MP for East Devon
  • Rural Design
  • RuSource - Arthur Rank Centre
  • Salty Monk
  • Save Our Local Pub
  • Save Our Sidmouth
  • Save Sidmouth Drill Hall Campaign
  • See Red
  • Select Sidmouth
  • Selfbuild Central
  • Severn Architecture
  • Severn Tidal
  • Sid Vale Association
  • Sid Valley Energy Action Group
  • Sidford Social Hall
  • Sidmouth Arboretum
  • Sidmouth Chamber of Commerce
  • Sidmouth College
  • Sidmouth Food Group
  • Sidmouth Gig Club
  • Sidmouth Herald
  • Sidmouth Hotels
  • Sidmouth in Bloom
  • Sidmouth Independent News
  • Sidmouth Lifeboat
  • Sidmouth People
  • Sidmouth Sailing Club
  • Sidmouth Science Festival
  • Sidmouth Town Council
  • Sidmouth Town Website
  • Sidmouth Trawlers
  • SkyPark
  • Smarter Grid Solutions
  • Social Housebuilding & Maintenance
  • Societe 2000 Watts
  • Soil Association
  • South Devon AONB
  • South West Coast Path
  • South West Councils
  • Spinwatch
  • Streetlife
  • Sustainability Centre
  • Sustainable Business Toolkit
  • Sustainable Crediton
  • Sustainable Ottery
  • Sustainable Tourism
  • Sustaining Tourism
  • Sustrans
  • SVEAG
  • Taste of the West
  • This is Cornwall
  • This is Devon
  • This is Exeter
  • This is Money
  • This is North Devon
  • This is Somerset
  • This is the West Country
  • Tour de Manche
  • Transition Culture
  • Transition Exeter
  • Transition Network
  • Transition Norwich
  • Transition Town Exmouth
  • Transition Town Honiton
  • Transition Town Totnes
  • Treehugger
  • UK Govenment
  • Understory
  • Unlock Democracy
  • Urban Answers
  • Victorian Society
  • View From Sidmouth
  • Vision Group for Sidmouth
  • Vision Group for Sidmouth 2006 Report
  • Visit Devon
  • Visit Sidmouth
  • Waitrose
  • Western Daily Press
  • Wetland Treatment Systems
  • What Do They Know
  • WWF
  • Yes to Homes
  • Zero Carbon Britain

more links

  • 1st Sid Vale Scouts
  • 38 Degrees
  • Association of East Devon Chambers of Commerce
  • BBC Dorset
  • Bay FM Radio
  • Big Butterfly Count
  • Bristol Post
  • British Hospitality Association
  • Building Design
  • Butterfly Conservation
  • Byes Pre-School - Sidford Playgroup
  • CAMRA
  • Campaign for the Protection of Rural England - Devon
  • Centre for Effective Government
  • Chard and Ilminster News
  • Citizens Advice Bureau East Devon
  • Climate justice campaign - Christian Aid
  • Clinton Devon Estates
  • Community Energy
  • Community Energy Coalition
  • Community Land Trust Assn of West Marin
  • Community Matters
  • Community Voice on Planning
  • Cooperative & Mutual Solutions
  • Cornish Guardian
  • Cosmic - East Devon
  • Decisions, Decisions, Decisions
  • Dementia Action Alliance
  • Devon Birds
  • Devon Gardens Trust
  • Devon Green Lanes Group
  • Devon Health and Wellbeing
  • Devon Life
  • Devon Tour of Britain
  • Devon Town Profiles
  • Devon Trail Riders Fellowship
  • Devon Wildlife Trust
  • Donkey Sanctuary
  • Dorset Wildlife Trust
  • EDA Facebook
  • EDDC Councillor Susie Bond
  • EDDC Press
  • East Devon Alliance
  • Embedded Carbon Analysis
  • Engaging Networks
  • English Heritage
  • European Mobility Week
  • European Union - Environment
  • Exeter Express & Echo
  • Exeter University
  • Exeter and East Devon Growth Point
  • Exmouth Journal
  • Exmouth People
  • Exmouth Vision
  • Fight for Feniton's Future
  • Fish News EU
  • Flavel Arts Centre Dartmouth
  • Frack Off - Frack Free Devon
  • Green Building Press
  • Green Construction
  • Green Lanes Environmental Action Movement
  • Green New Deal Group
  • HS2 Action Alliance
  • Inside Business 360
  • Institute of Civil Engineers
  • Liverton Business Park
  • Local Food Grants
  • Local Gov
  • Marine Reserves Coalition
  • Martin Goodall's Planning Law Blog
  • Mary Robinson Foundation - Climate Justice
  • Met Office
  • National Council for Voluntary Organisations
  • National House Building Council
  • Natural Capital Project
  • Natural England
  • Norman Lockyer Observatory
  • Notes from a Broken Society
  • One Fish Two Fish Red Fish Blue Fish
  • One Hundred Months
  • Openly Local
  • Otter Rotters
  • Persimmon Homes
  • Planning Resource
  • Plymouth Herald
  • Plymouth University
  • Public Affairs World
  • Reconnect
  • Recycled Architecture
  • Royal Academy
  • Rural Services Network
  • SAVE Britain's Heritage
  • SVA Rural Footpaths
  • Salty Monk
  • Save Our Greenspaces
  • Save The Salamanders
  • Sibylline – Marine Wildlife Center
  • Sid Valley Cycling Club
  • Sid Valley Foodbank - e-mail
  • Sidbury Manor
  • Sidbury Primary School
  • Sidbury Village Website
  • Sidford WI
  • Sidmouth & District Hospitality Assn
  • Sidmouth Carnival
  • Sidmouth Drill Hall
  • Sidmouth Folk Week
  • Sidmouth Fringe
  • Sidmouth Memories
  • Sidmouth Museum
  • Sidmouth Streetlife
  • Sidmouth Town Band
  • Sidmouth Twinning Circle
  • SkyPark
  • SouthWest Business
  • Stand Up For Seaton
  • Strawbale House Islington
  • TaxPayer Alliance
  • Tescowatch Seaton
  • The Pub in the Village - Save the Red Lion
  • This is Dorset = Blackmore Vale Magazine
  • UK Butterflies
  • University College London
  • Visit South Devon
  • WWF
  • We Are Residents - Saffron Walden
  • Western Morning News
  • Western Morning News
  • Wildlife Trusts
  • Woodland Education Centre - Offwell Honiton
  • YouGen
  • Your Local Guardian

even more links

  • 10:10
  • Airbnb
  • Alphr
  • Anna Minton
  • Architects Journal
  • Beyond Current Horizons
  • Big Think
  • Binzagr Institute for Sustainable Prosperity
  • Blockupy
  • Breaking News
  • Builder and Engineer
  • Builders Merchants News
  • Building
  • Building Design
  • Business Insider
  • C4SS - Center for a Stateless Society
  • Campaign for Freedom of Information
  • Captain Capitalism
  • Centre for Science and Policy
  • Centre for Science and Policy @ Cambridge
  • Chartered Institute of Building
  • Child Accident Prevention Trust
  • Club of Info
  • Commons Abundance Network
  • Commons Transition
  • Construction Manager
  • Counterpunch
  • Crowd Justice
  • Cyclists' Touring Club in Devon
  • Decisions, decisions, decisions: Andrew Lainton
  • Desktop Regulatory State
  • Devon Week
  • EBuild - Self-Build Community
  • EDDC Cllr Ian Thomas - Trinity Matters
  • East Devon Conservatives
  • East Devon Green Party
  • East Devon Labour
  • East Devon Liberal Democrats
  • Estonian Green Movement - FOE
  • Exeter Civic Society
  • Exmouth Journal
  • Exmouth Splash - public opinion and discussion page
  • Farm Carbon Cutting Toolkit
  • Flatpack Democracy
  • Forbes
  • Foundation for Economic Education
  • Green Optimistic
  • Guardian Sustainable Business
  • Henry Jenkins
  • IBTimes
  • Information Commissioner's Office
  • Information Tribunal
  • International Business Times
  • Library of Law and Liberty
  • Livable Cities
  • Local Government Lawyer
  • Micromanufacturing
  • Mid Devon Gazette
  • Mises Institute
  • Mutualist Blogspot
  • NHS - NEW Devon CCG
  • NHS - North Devon Healthcare
  • New Internationalist
  • Open Democracy
  • P2P Foundation
  • Paul Mason
  • People’s Republic of South Devon
  • Permaculture Association
  • Permaculture Guild
  • Positive Money
  • Post Scarcity Alliance
  • Post-Crash Economics
  • RHS - Communities
  • Real Zorro
  • Reinventing Money
  • Renewal
  • Reporting Climate Science
  • Resource Based Abundance Economy
  • Rewilding Britain
  • Rio 20
  • Rural Services Network
  • Shelter Blog
  • Slate
  • Small Business
  • South West Green Party
  • Spinwatch
  • Straightgate Action Group
  • Strike! Magazine
  • Telegraph Blogs
  • The Baffler
  • The Conversation
  • The Ecologist
  • The Long + Short
  • The Urbanist
  • Transition Free Press
  • Transition Research Network
  • UKIP Devon
  • Uber
  • Undercover Info
  • Urban Technologist
  • Walking School Bus
  • World Economic Forum
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